CRYPTO CYCLES & BITCOIN HALVINGS
Plain English
Bitcoin's supply is cut in half roughly every four years. Historically, this has triggered massive bull runs followed by 70-90% bear markets. Understanding these cycles is critical for sizing positions and timing exits.
Going deeper
Halvings reduce the BTC mining reward by 50%, cutting new supply entering the market. Past cycles (2012, 2016, 2020) followed a pattern: halving leads to a 12-18 month bull market, then a blowoff top, then ~80% drawdown over 12-18 months, then accumulation, then the next halving. Each cycle has had diminishing peak ROI as the asset matures. The 2024 halving (4th) tested the cycle's relevance amid spot ETF inflows. Smart traders treat halvings as one signal among many — adoption metrics, macro liquidity, and on-chain data matter equally.
Examples
Cycle returns
BTC went from $12 to $1,150 (2013), $200 to $20k (2017), $3k to $69k (2021). Each cycle returned smaller multiples but on a much larger market cap base.
Bear-market accumulation
BTC fell 77% from $69k to $15.5k in 2022. Traders who DCA'd through the bear had average costs near $25k by mid-2023 — well-positioned for the next cycle.