The highest and lowest prices at which a stock has traded over the past year. Used as reference points for momentum and breakout analysis.

Any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin. Includes Ethereum, Solana, and thousands of others. Altcoins generally carry higher volatility and risk than Bitcoin.

A decentralized exchange protocol that prices assets algorithmically using liquidity pools, rather than an order book. Uniswap is the most prominent example.

The lowest price a seller is willing to accept for a security. Also called the 'offer' price.

The process by which the seller (writer) of an option is notified that the buyer has exercised the option, requiring the seller to fulfill the contract obligation.

An option whose strike price equals the current market price of the underlying asset. ATM options have no intrinsic value.

A market condition where futures prices are lower than the current spot price, often signaling supply shortages or high near-term demand.

The historical frequency with which a type of event has occurred. E.g., the US has been in recession ~13% of the time since 1945. Base rates are the starting point before updating on current evidence.

The difference between the spot (cash) price of a commodity and its nearby futures price. Basis narrows as expiration approaches, converging to zero at delivery.

A market decline of 20% or more from recent highs, typically accompanied by widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.

A false signal where a stock appears to break down below support, triggering short sellers, then reverses sharply higher — trapping shorts.

An outlook expecting prices to decline. Bearish strategies profit when the underlying asset falls in value.

The highest price a buyer is willing to pay for a security. The difference between bid and ask is called the spread.

A contract with exactly two possible outcomes — Yes (pays $1.00) or No (pays $0.00). The fundamental instrument of prediction markets. Your maximum loss is always your entry price.

The first and largest cryptocurrency by market cap, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. Limited to 21 million coins, making it deflationary by design.

The amount of cryptocurrency a miner receives for successfully adding a new block to the blockchain. For Bitcoin, this reward halves every 210,000 blocks (~4 years).

A distributed, append-only ledger where transactions are grouped into blocks, each cryptographically linked to the previous one. The technology underlying Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most cryptocurrencies.

Shares of large, well-established, financially sound companies with a long track record. Examples include Apple, Johnson & Johnson, and JPMorgan Chase.

A company's total assets minus total liabilities, divided by shares outstanding. Sometimes called 'net asset value' and used in P/B ratio calculations.

The price at which a trade neither makes nor loses money. For options, it accounts for the premium paid or received.

A sustained period of rising prices, typically defined as a 20% increase from recent lows, accompanied by optimism and strong buying.

A false breakout above resistance that attracts buyers, then reverses sharply lower — trapping longs who bought the breakout.

An outlook expecting prices to rise. Bullish strategies profit when the underlying asset increases in value.

The total amount of capital available for trading, including margin or leverage. In options, some strategies require collateral (buying power reduction).

A futures trade involving simultaneous long and short positions in the same contract but different expiration months. Profits from changes in the price differential between months.

A measure of how accurately a forecaster's probability estimates reflect actual outcomes. A well-calibrated predictor's 70% estimates resolve 'Yes' approximately 70% of the time.

A contract giving the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of the underlying stock at the strike price before expiration.

The actual cash moving into and out of a business. Operating cash flow (from core business) is often considered a more reliable measure of health than reported earnings.

A crypto exchange run by a company that holds customer funds and manages order books. Examples: Coinbase, Binance, Kraken. Convenient but carries counterparty risk.

The US regulator overseeing futures and derivatives markets, including Kalshi's prediction market platform. CFTC oversight means segregated customer funds and regulatory accountability.

The intermediary that stands between every buyer and seller in a futures transaction, guaranteeing contract performance and managing counterparty risk.

A crypto wallet that stores private keys offline, disconnected from the internet. Hardware wallets (Ledger, Trezor) are the most common type. Considered the safest storage method.

A raw material or primary agricultural product — crude oil, gold, corn, natural gas — that is traded on futures exchanges and forms the basis of most commodity futures contracts.

A market condition where futures prices are higher than the current spot price, typically due to storage costs and time value.

The moment a prediction market contract settles to $1.00 (event occurred) or $0.00 (event didn't occur). The resolution criteria — usually a single precise sentence — defines exactly what counts.

The total cost of holding a physical commodity or financial instrument — storage, insurance, financing charges. Explains why most markets are in contango under normal conditions.

A strategy where you own 100 shares and sell a call option against them, collecting premium income while capping upside potential.

A multi-leg options strategy where the premium received from selling exceeds the premium paid for buying, resulting in a net credit.

The phenomenon where aggregating many independent forecasts produces more accurate predictions than any individual expert. Prediction market prices aggregate information from all participants.

A digital or virtual currency secured by cryptography and typically running on a decentralized blockchain network. Cannot be counterfeited and operates without a central authority.

Futures positions are repriced to the market at the end of each trading day. Profits are credited and losses are debited to accounts daily — unlike stocks, which settle only on sale.

An organization governed by smart contracts and token holder voting rather than traditional management. Members vote on proposals using governance tokens.

An exchange license granted by the CFTC that allows a platform to offer standardized contracts to the public. Kalshi holds a DCM license — the same category as CME Group and ICE.

A multi-leg options strategy where the premium paid for buying exceeds the premium received from selling, resulting in a net debit.

A ratio comparing a company's total liabilities to shareholder equity. Higher D/E means more financial leverage and risk. Industry averages vary widely.

Financial services (lending, borrowing, trading, yield generation) built on blockchain networks using smart contracts, accessible without banks or brokers.

A trading strategy where the maximum possible loss is known before entering the trade, such as a vertical spread or long option.

The Greek that measures how much an option's price changes for a $1 change in the underlying stock. Ranges from 0 to 1 for calls, 0 to -1 for puts.

A crypto exchange that runs on smart contracts, allowing peer-to-peer trades without a company holding funds. Examples: Uniswap, Curve, dYdX.

A distribution of a company's earnings to shareholders, typically paid quarterly. Represents a share of profits returned to investors.

Electronically traded futures contracts at a fraction of the standard size. E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is the world's most actively traded futures contract.

The period (roughly 2–6 weeks after each quarter ends) when most public companies report financial results. Major source of market volatility.

Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. A proxy for operating cash flow used to compare profitability across companies with different capital structures.

A company's net income divided by outstanding shares. A key metric for evaluating profitability on a per-share basis.

A basket of securities that trades on an exchange like a stock. ETFs can track indices (SPY, QQQ), sectors, commodities, or themes. Low-cost and highly liquid.

The second-largest cryptocurrency and the dominant platform for smart contracts, DeFi, and NFTs. Transitioned from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake in 2022 (The Merge).

A financial instrument tied to the outcome of a specific real-world event — economic data release, Fed decision, election result, weather event. The core product of prediction markets.

The act of the option buyer invoking their right to buy (call) or sell (put) the underlying asset at the strike price.

The probability-weighted average outcome of a trade. Positive EV: (probability × reward) > ((1-probability) × risk). Only take positions where your edge gives positive expected value over many trades.

The last date on which an option contract can be exercised. After this date, the option ceases to exist.

The portion of an option's premium above its intrinsic value, driven by time remaining and implied volatility. Also called time value.

The CME Group tool showing market-implied probabilities of Federal Reserve rate decisions, derived from Fed Funds futures pricing. Often compared to Kalshi Fed rate decision contracts to identify divergences.

The first day a holder of a physical commodity futures contract can receive a delivery notice. Traders must close positions before this date if they don't want to take delivery.

The number of shares actually available for public trading — total shares minus insider-held, restricted, and institutional locked shares. Low-float stocks are more volatile.

The anxiety that drives traders to chase rallying assets without analysis. FOMO buyers often enter near market tops and are the last to buy before a reversal.

A private, customized agreement between two parties to buy/sell an asset at a future date and price. Unlike futures, forwards are not standardized or exchange-traded.

Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash left after a business maintains or expands its asset base — often used in valuation models.

Negative news, rumors, or narratives spread about a cryptocurrency — sometimes true, sometimes deliberately misleading — that creates selling pressure.

Evaluating a security by examining financial statements, industry conditions, management, and economic factors to determine intrinsic value.

A periodic payment between long and short holders of perpetual futures contracts to keep the contract price anchored to spot. Positive funding = longs pay shorts; negative = shorts pay longs.

A standardized, exchange-traded agreement to buy or sell a specific asset at a predetermined price on a future date. Both parties are obligated.

The Greek that measures the rate of change of delta per $1 move in the underlying. High gamma means delta changes rapidly.

When a stock opens significantly above or below the previous day's close, leaving a price 'gap' on the chart. Caused by overnight news, earnings, or macro events.

The transaction cost paid to network validators to process a transaction on Ethereum or similar blockchains. Fees fluctuate based on network congestion.

A set of risk measures (Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, Rho) that describe how an option's price responds to various factors.

A company expected to grow earnings faster than average. Growth stocks typically have high P/E ratios and often pay no dividend, reinvesting profits into expansion.

A pre-programmed Bitcoin event occurring every ~4 years that cuts the block reward in half. Halvings reduce new supply issuance and have historically preceded major bull markets.

The total computational power dedicated to mining a Proof of Work blockchain. Higher hash rate means a more secure network. Measured in terahashes (TH/s) or exahashes (EH/s).

A market participant using futures to offset price risk in an underlying commodity or financial exposure. Farmers, airlines, and banks are classic hedgers.

Using derivatives or other instruments to reduce or offset the risk of adverse price movements in an existing position.

Crypto slang for holding a cryptocurrency long-term regardless of price volatility. Originated from a typo of 'hold' in a 2013 Bitcoin forum post, now treated as an acronym: Hold On for Dear Life.

A crypto wallet connected to the internet, typically a software app or browser extension (e.g., MetaMask). Convenient for frequent transactions but more vulnerable to hacks.

The unrealized loss a liquidity provider experiences relative to simply holding the assets, caused by price divergence between the pooled tokens as the AMM rebalances.

The probability of an event occurring as implied by a contract's market price. A Yes contract at $0.65 implies a 65% market-implied probability of the event happening.

The market's forecast of the likely magnitude of future price movements, expressed as an annualized percentage. Higher IV means more expensive options.

A call option where the stock price is above the strike, or a put where the stock is below the strike. ITM options have intrinsic value.

A fund that tracks a market index (like the S&P 500) passively, buying all or most of its components. Known for low costs, tax efficiency, and broad diversification.

The minimum deposit required to open a futures position, typically a percentage of the total contract value.

A trade involving related but different commodities — e.g., long crude oil and short natural gas, or long soybeans and short corn. Profits from changing price relationships.

The amount by which an option is in-the-money. For a call: stock price minus strike price. For a put: strike price minus stock price.

The first time a private company sells shares to the public. IPO prices are set by underwriters; opening prices reflect real-time market demand.

A defined-risk, neutral options strategy combining a bull put spread and bear call spread. Profits when the stock stays within a range.

The first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US, launched in 2021. Offers contracts on economic data, Fed decisions, elections, weather, and financial market outcomes.

A mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing: fraction = (p × b − (1−p)) / b, where p is your probability and b is net odds. Kelly maximizes long-run growth rate. Many traders use half-Kelly for safety.

The final day a futures contract can be traded. After this, the contract settles via cash or physical delivery depending on the contract type.

The base blockchain network itself — Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. Layer 1 handles consensus, security, and data availability. Transaction fees and throughput are constrained at this layer.

A secondary framework built on top of a Layer 1 blockchain to increase transaction throughput and reduce fees. Examples: Arbitrum, Optimism, Base (Ethereum L2s). Transactions settle back to L1.

Using borrowed capital or derivatives to amplify potential returns. In futures, leverage comes from the low margin requirement relative to contract size.

An order to buy or sell at a specific price or better. Provides price certainty but no guarantee of execution.

The ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without significantly affecting its price. High volume and tight spreads indicate good liquidity.

A smart contract holding reserves of two or more tokens that enables decentralized trading. Users who deposit tokens become liquidity providers and earn a share of trading fees.

Owning an asset or buying a derivative with the expectation that its value will increase.

The consistent tendency for prediction markets to overprice low-probability events. Contracts priced at 5% historically resolve Yes ~3.5% of the time — creating a systematic edge in selling No on unlikely events.

The minimum account balance required to keep a futures position open. If equity falls below this level, a margin call is issued.

A demand from a broker to deposit additional funds when the account equity falls below the maintenance margin requirement.

The total market value of a company's outstanding shares, calculated as share price times shares outstanding.

A cryptocurrency's share of total crypto market capitalization. Bitcoin dominance is closely watched — rising dominance often signals risk-off sentiment with money flowing from altcoins to BTC.

A firm or individual that continuously quotes both buy and sell prices, providing liquidity. Market makers profit from the bid-ask spread.

An order to buy or sell immediately at the best available price. Guarantees execution but not the exact price.

The probability of an event occurring as collectively priced by all market participants. Calculated directly from the contract price — a $0.72 Yes contract implies 72% probability.

Contracts 1/10th the size of standard E-mini contracts. Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES), Micro Gold (MGC), Micro Bitcoin. Ideal for learning, fine-tuning, or capital-constrained accounts.

The process of validating new blockchain transactions by solving complex cryptographic puzzles. Miners are rewarded with newly created coins (block reward) plus transaction fees.

The tendency of securities that have performed well recently to continue outperforming — and vice versa for underperformers. A core concept in quantitative and short-term trading.

Describes the relationship between an option's strike price and the current stock price: in-the-money, at-the-money, or out-of-the-money.

The average closing price over a set number of periods (e.g., 50-day MA, 200-day MA). Used to smooth price data and identify trend direction.

A unique digital token on a blockchain representing ownership of a specific asset — art, collectible, game item, or more. Unlike fungible tokens, no two NFTs are identical.

The short side of a prediction market. Buying No pays $1.00 if the event does NOT happen. No price = 1 − Yes price (minus fees). Selling Yes is equivalent to buying No.

The total value controlled by a futures contract. The MES at 5,000 index points has a notional value of $25,000 ($5 × 5,000). You only post a small margin fraction to control this amount.

Analyzing publicly available blockchain data — wallet flows, exchange balances, miner activity — to gain insight into market participant behavior and potential price trends.

The total number of outstanding option or futures contracts that have not been settled. Indicates market participation and liquidity.

Total number of outstanding prediction market contracts that haven't yet resolved. High open interest with high volume indicates an active, liquid market worth trading.

A call where the stock is below the strike, or a put where the stock is above the strike. OTM options have zero intrinsic value.

The total of Yes and No prices exceeds $1.00 (accounting for platform fees). The overround is the prediction market's equivalent of the house edge — the cost built into trading.

Price-to-Earnings ratio: the stock price divided by earnings per share. A common valuation metric comparing price to profitability.

Dividends paid divided by net earnings. A payout ratio above 80–90% may signal the dividend is at risk if earnings decline.

Futures-style contracts with no expiration date. Used heavily in crypto for leveraged trading. Funding rates keep the contract price tethered to spot. Most crypto derivatives volume is in perpetuals.

Determining how many contracts to buy based on your confidence, bankroll, and expected value. The Kelly Criterion provides a mathematical framework; many traders use half-Kelly to manage variance.

An exchange where participants trade contracts tied to the probability of specific future events. Prices are directly interpretable as probabilities, aggregating collective knowledge from all participants.

The price of an option contract, determined by supply and demand. It's the cost the buyer pays and the income the seller receives.

A secret cryptographic code that grants full control over a crypto wallet. Anyone with a private key can move the funds. Never share it — loss or theft means permanent loss of assets.

A consensus mechanism where validators lock up (stake) cryptocurrency as collateral to validate transactions and earn rewards. More energy-efficient than Proof of Work. Used by Ethereum.

A consensus mechanism where miners compete to solve complex math problems to validate transactions. Energy-intensive but battle-tested. Used by Bitcoin.

A shareable cryptographic address derived from a private key, used to receive cryptocurrency. It's safe to share — think of it as your bank account number.

A contract giving the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock at the strike price before expiration.

The tendency to overweight recent outcomes when forming probability estimates. Prediction markets often overprice events that recently occurred (e.g., inflation staying high after a spike) and underprice mean reversion.

A company that owns income-producing real estate. REITs must distribute 90%+ of taxable income as dividends. Trades on exchanges like a stock.

The precise, published definition of what counts as the event occurring. The single most important thing to read before trading any prediction market contract — 'Will the Fed raise rates?' could mean different meetings.

Net income divided by shareholder equity. Measures how efficiently a company uses stockholder funds to generate profit. Warren Buffett often favors high-ROE businesses.

The total income a company generates from selling goods or services before expenses. Also called 'top line' because it's the first item on an income statement.

The Greek that measures an option's sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Generally less significant than other Greeks for short-term options.

Closing a near-expiration futures contract and opening a new position in a later-expiring contract to maintain market exposure.

A scam where developers of a crypto project abandon it after accumulating investor funds, draining liquidity pools or selling all their tokens. One of the most common crypto frauds.

The movement of investment dollars between different industry sectors as the economic cycle progresses. Financials lead early; Utilities lead late; Tech and Discretionary lead growth phases.

A sequence of 12–24 random words that serves as the master backup for a crypto wallet. Anyone with these words can restore the wallet and access all funds. Must be stored securely offline.

The process of fulfilling a contract at expiration, either through physical delivery of the asset or cash settlement.

The total number of shares currently sold short but not yet covered. High short interest can fuel short squeezes when prices rise and shorts rush to cover.

Selling an asset you don't own (stocks) or selling a derivative (options/futures) with the expectation that its value will decrease.

Borrowing shares from a broker and selling them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price to return them and pocket the difference.

Self-executing code stored on a blockchain that automatically carries out predefined actions when conditions are met. The foundation of DeFi, NFTs, and most Ethereum-based applications.

A market participant who accepts price risk in pursuit of profit — the counterparty to hedgers in futures markets. Speculators provide the liquidity that makes futures markets functional.

The current market price at which an asset can be bought or sold for immediate delivery.

A multi-leg options strategy involving simultaneous buying and selling of contracts. Can also refer to the bid-ask spread.

A cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. Types include fiat-backed (USDC, USDT), crypto-backed (DAI), and algorithmic.

Locking up cryptocurrency to participate in Proof of Stake consensus validation. Stakers earn rewards (yield) in return, similar to earning interest. Funds can usually be 'unstaked' but may have a lock-up period.

An order placed to sell a security when it reaches a certain price, designed to limit an investor's loss on a position.

An options strategy involving buying (or selling) both a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. Profits from large moves in either direction.

An options strategy involving buying (or selling) a call and put at different strikes but the same expiration. Cheaper than a straddle, needs a bigger move.

The predetermined price at which the option buyer can buy (call) or sell (put) the underlying stock if they exercise the contract.

A term from Philip Tetlock's research for individuals who consistently make more accurate probability forecasts than average by applying structured updating, base rates, and debiasing techniques.

Studying price charts, patterns, and statistical indicators to predict future price movements based on historical trading activity.

The Greek that measures time decay — how much value an option loses each day as it gets closer to expiration, all else equal.

The minimum price increment a futures contract can move. Different contracts have different tick sizes and tick values.

The dollar amount that one minimum price move (tick) equals in a futures contract. ES: 0.25 points × $50 = $12.50 per tick. CL (oil): $0.01 × 1,000 barrels = $10 per tick.

A digital asset issued on an existing blockchain (e.g., an ERC-20 token on Ethereum), as opposed to a coin which runs on its own native blockchain. Tokens can represent currency, governance rights, or ownership.

The total value of assets deposited into a DeFi protocol's smart contracts. TVL is a key metric for measuring DeFi protocol adoption and health.

A strategy where the maximum loss is theoretically unlimited, such as selling a naked call.

The security or asset that a derivative (option or futures contract) is based on. For stock options, it's the stock itself.

A company trading below what its fundamentals suggest it's worth. Typically has a low P/E, P/B, or P/S ratio. Contrasted with growth stocks that trade at premium valuations.

The Greek that measures an option's sensitivity to changes in implied volatility. Higher vega means the option is more affected by IV changes.

A timetable that controls when team members, early investors, or protocol allocations can sell their tokens. Upcoming large vesting unlocks create sell pressure — always check a token's vesting schedule.

A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security. Higher volatility means wider price swings.

The number of shares or contracts traded during a given period. Higher volume indicates greater interest and better liquidity.

The average price a stock has traded at throughout the day, weighted by volume. Widely used by institutional traders as a benchmark for execution quality.

A unique string of letters and numbers that identifies a specific location on a blockchain for receiving or sending cryptocurrency. Like a bank account number for crypto.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Monthly USDA report that updates global supply/demand forecasts for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops. A major mover of grain futures.

An individual or entity holding a very large amount of cryptocurrency — enough that their buying or selling activity can noticeably move the market price.

The long side of a prediction market. Buying Yes pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0.00 if it doesn't. Your maximum loss is always the price you paid.