THE CRYPTO MARKET CYCLE

Plain English

Crypto markets follow roughly 4-year cycles tied to Bitcoin's halving events. Bull runs followed by brutal bear markets of 70-90%+ drawdowns. Understanding where you are in the cycle is one of the most important edges in crypto investing.

Going deeper

The Bitcoin halving occurs every ~4 years (every 210,000 blocks), cutting the block reward in half. Historical halvings: 2012 ($12→$1,150), 2016 ($650→$20,000), 2020 ($8,500→$69,000). The cycle typically has four phases: Accumulation (bear market bottom, low sentiment, smart money buying quietly), Early Bull (price recovery, mainstream media interest growing), Late Bull (parabolic moves, FOMO, retail mania, 'this time is different' narrative), Bear Market (90%+ drawdowns from peak, companies fail, weak projects die). Altcoins follow BTC but with higher beta — they typically fall harder and rise faster. Each cycle tends to bring new narratives (ICOs in 2017, DeFi in 2020, NFTs in 2021, Layer 2s in 2024).

Examples