DATA SOURCES & TOOLS FOR PM RESEARCH
Plain English
Trading prediction markets well is a research game. You need the right data sources before the market updates — Bloomberg consensus estimates, Fed speaker tracking, polling aggregators, and economic release calendars. Knowing where to find information faster than other participants is one of the most durable edges you can build.
Going deeper
Key data sources by event category: (1) Economic Data Releases — CME FedWatch (Fed rate probabilities), Bloomberg/Refinitiv consensus estimates (consensus before CPI, NFP, GDP releases), Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast (real-time CPI estimates), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (GDP estimate), ADP report (previews NFP). (2) Fed Policy — FOMC meeting calendar (Federal Reserve website), CME FedWatch Tool, Fed speaker tracker (Kalshi and Bloomberg track speeches), Fed Funds futures (implied probability from CME). (3) Political Events — FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics (polling averages), Predictit comparisons, state-level electoral vote models. (4) Financial Market Outcomes — CME Group data, CBOE for volatility, SEC filings for corporate events. (5) Cross-referencing tools: compare Kalshi prices to CME FedWatch, TIPS breakeven rates, and options-implied probabilities to find divergences. Execution edge: setting up real-time alerts in Bloomberg or Reuters, monitoring Twitter/X financial accounts, using economic calendars (Investing.com, ForexFactory) to prepare for scheduled data releases.
Examples
CPI Research Workflow
One week before CPI release: (1) Check Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast estimate. (2) Look at PPI (released prior week) — PPI feeds into CPI. (3) Check Truflation real-time inflation tracker. (4) Read recent shelter/rent data from Zillow and FRED. (5) Compare all signals to Kalshi contract price. If your composite estimate diverges from the market by 10%+, you may have a trade.
Fed Speaker Tracking
Between FOMC meetings, Fed officials give speeches that signal policy direction. Track every speech on the Fed's website. If a voting member says something markedly more hawkish than expected, immediately check the Kalshi 'Fed rate cut' contract — it often takes 15-30 minutes for the PM to fully price in what Fed Funds futures have already moved on.