TRADING MACRO ECONOMIC EVENTS
Plain English
CPI, NFP, FOMC, and GDP releases drive most PM volume. Trading them well requires knowing the consensus forecast, the standard error around it, and how PM contracts will react to a beat or miss.
Going deeper
Bloomberg and Reuters publish consensus forecasts before each release. The standard deviation of analyst estimates indicates expected surprise risk. Pre-position 1-3 days before the release based on your model's deviation from consensus. Reduce or close positions immediately before the release if uncertainty is high. After the release, the first 5-10 minutes typically over-react before retracing 30-50%; experienced PM traders fade extreme initial moves. Calendar awareness is critical — check the release schedule daily.
Examples
CPI consensus trade
Consensus is 0.3% MoM CPI. Your model from leading indicators says 0.1%. Position long Yes on 'CPI < 0.2%' contract before release. If you're right, capture 30+ cent move.
Post-release fade
NFP prints 100k vs 200k expected. PM contract jumps from $0.40 to $0.78 on 'unemployment > 4%'. Within 10 minutes it retraces to $0.65 as the report's revisions and details digest.