KALSHI VS POLYMARKET VS PREDICTIT
Plain English
The three major PM platforms have different regulatory status, fee structures, and contract menus. Knowing which to use for which trade matters for both edge and access.
Going deeper
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-legal, and offers macro-event contracts (CPI, Fed, weather, sports). Polymarket is offshore (currently restricted for US users), uses USDC on Polygon, and has the broadest event menu including politics. PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter for academic research with $850 per-contract caps. Each has different liquidity profiles: Kalshi leads on macro and weather; Polymarket leads on politics and crypto-native events; PredictIt has unique long-tail political contracts. Cross-venue arbitrage is a recurring opportunity for sophisticated traders.
Examples
Same event, different prices
A Fed-cut contract trades at $0.62 on Kalshi and $0.65 on Polymarket. Buy on Kalshi, sell on Polymarket for a 3-cent spread minus fees.
Platform-specific strategies
Use Kalshi for macro economic data, Polymarket for crypto-native and global events, PredictIt for niche US political races.