RECORD KEEPING & TRADE JOURNALS
Plain English
Improving as a PM trader requires honest records of every trade: thesis, probability estimate, position size, outcome. The journal is the only way to spot patterns in your wins and losses.
Going deeper
Maintain a spreadsheet or notebook with one row per trade: date, contract, entry price, your stated probability, position size, exit price, outcome, P&L, post-mortem note. Tag trades by category (macro, politics, weather, sports). Monthly reviews compute hit rate by category, average ROI per trade, calibration score (Brier), and biggest losers' common themes. Most trader breakthroughs come from spotting one category where they consistently lose money — and stopping trading it.
Examples
Category insight
After 6 months of tracking, you find your election trades are 65% winners but your weather trades are 38% winners. Stop trading weather; double down on election analysis.
Brier score over time
Your monthly Brier score drops from 0.27 to 0.20 over 12 months. Real progress in calibration — and real growth in account equity.